The 2007 Midrange Jobs Market - A Perfect Storm?
By Karl Kleinbach
As you look forward at 2007, you may be looking for new talent or another position.
What can you expect in the current and future System i job market?
We posed this question to Nate Viall (www.nateviall.com) a high-profile AS/400 (iSeries) recruiter, who has been following the midrange market since 1982. What we learned was intriguing, there are definitely some significant shifts in the market coming, and smart organizations will need to act soon to avoid paying a dear price later.
As Mr. Viall describes the current and future situation, I am reminded of the movie "A Perfect Storm" where two storms come together to become a single much larger super-storm. In the Midrange job market we may be looking at a similar confluence of events that result in a very hot market for experienced professionals in this niche.
Population Shifts Loom Large
The first trend at play is the exodus of the Baby Boomer generation from the workforce, and when they leave they'll be taking the bulk of the experienced System i workforce with them. This departure occurs at the same time that the Gen X workers are entering the workforce. This group has the distinction of including the smallest number of births per year, and consequently a much smaller labor pool to draw from.
Taken alone these factors wouldn’t have too great an impact, but there are several other developments at play here that are going to seriously change the landscape for this labor market.
Dot Bomb Fallout Continues
If you thought the negative ramifications of the Dot Com debacle were behind you, think again. Part of the fallout hit IT departments in the form of a hiring freeze that only recently has begun to thaw. As a result, there are very few people available who have 2-5 years experience, the very people who are in the greatest demand as protégés for the exiting Boomers.
Another result of the Dot Bombs was the clear-cutting of IT budgets. Many companies responded by trying to leverage their meager budgets and outsourced anything they could overseas. This tactic didn’t go unnoticed by the next generation of workers still in school, and students have been abandoning IT degree programs in droves, leading to a drop of 40-70% in enrollment at many 4 year degree programs.
More Competition, More Pressure
Oh, but there’s more. Unemployment numbers continue to be very low (staying below the five percent figure that is generally regarded as representing full employment), and this will only serve to apply even more upward pressure on wages going forward, provided there are no major disruptions to the economy as a whole.
So where’s the opportunity to make the most of this situation? That depends on where you are sitting, are you hiring, or looking for an opportunity with another company?
Employers Be Proactive
If you’re hiring, 2007 may be your last chance to pick up Midrange talent at current wage levels according to Viall. "We've seen an increase in demand with lots of midrange companies looking for candidates with 2-5 years of experience. That said, I still see 2007 as only having marginal increases in wage pressure and demand, it's 18-24 months out that things may really start to happen. There’s definitely some interesting imbalances in the market and as always the market will find a way to correct that imbalance."
Viall recommends hiring two people now for every position you’ll need to fill two years from now, because typically only one of them will end up staying with you in the end. "It’s pay for two now, or pay a lot for one later" and waiting comes with the added burden of having to get them up to speed on your processes.
Job Hunters Be Patient
On the other hand, if you're the one looking for another position, you may want to wait and see, since Viall projects that things should really heat-up in 18-24 months. "Things could get pretty exciting for people with the right mix of skills and experience." In fact, the longer term prospects for job hunters in the System i space may be one of the few bright spots in the domestic IT market. Given the limited supply, Viall sees no foreseeable end to the shortage of available talent in this area.
So what can you expect to pay or get paid now? We performed an informal random sample of 10 AS/400 Programmer/Analyst positions on Dice.com and found the average pay offered was $71K, with a general range of plus or minus 10K depending on location and experience.
Good luck, and good hunting.
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